Don't Buy the 407

Hey All,

Welcome back to Middle Ground; this is our second newsletter as part of our 28 policies in the 28-day series ahead of the 2025 Ontario provincial election. Today, we will discuss the NDP’s proposal to purchase the 407.

What is Highway 407?
Highway 407 was built in the 1980s and 1990s to provide an alternative to the 401 which is the busiest highway in North America. The 407 aimed to connect Hamilton, Toronto and Peterborough without actually entering any of those cities, making it ideal for long-distance driving and trucks.

Why is it tolled?
In 1999 the central sections of the 407 were leased to a group of investors who now operate the primary portion of the highway. The Province of Ontario later extended the highway (known at 407 East) and implemented tolls on their new extension following the lead of the privately leased section.

Why does the NDP propose repurchasing the highway?
The first major policy announcement by the NDP ahead of the 2025 Provincial Election was a plan to repurchase the 407 and remove tolls. The logic behind repurchasing the highway is that it will remove trucks making long-haul journeys from the 401 and can help elevate congestion for drivers in southern Ontario.

Will this plan work?
No. Since 1999, urban planners have been studying the concept of “induced traffic.” This is a branch of the economic concept of “induced demand.” Induced demand is the idea that as something becomes more readily available, more people will use it. When applied to traffic, the logic is simple: if you build more roads - or remove tolls - then more people will use them.

Today, residents of the GTHA know that the 401 is slow and that the 407 is expensive, meaning that while some choose to sit in traffic, others try to avoid it. This can mean working different hours to avoid rush hour, using public transit, or working closer to home. All these decisions reduce the number of cars on highways and help reduce traffic.

If the NDP were to purchase the 407 and make it free for the public within months, the additional lanes would cause more people to choose to drive, quickly filling up the extra capacity, and traffic would return.

In short, the way to solve traffic and congestion isn’t to add more lanes but to provide suitable alternatives.

What is the opportunity cost?
The $30B spent on purchasing the 407 could be invested in many things. But assuming that it is earmarked for transportation, an alternative would be building a GO Train Line that runs under the 401 or parallel to the 407. In both cases this would be a new line that would service workers who have jobs north of Pickering, Toronto and Hamilton who need to commute within the GTHA. Currently, the GO Train runs primarily along the lake with the exception of North/South Lines and a few smaller extensions to Kitchener and Milton. Building a GO Train North of the City, specifically alongside the 407 (which would be cheaper than tunnelling under the 401) could connect Durham College in the East to Unionville, Richmond Hill, Mississauga, Halton and McMaster University.

An above-ground LRT or train line could cover that distance for a cost approximate to that of purchasing the 407 and remove a significant amount of traffic commuting from North of the GTHA to Toronto.

Further Reading:

• Induced Demand Study 

• History of Highway 407 

• Transit Costs

Onwards and Upwards,

Liam Gill

P.S. - Please share this with as many people as possible to help grow our community and help us hold our elected officials responsible for implementing these policy initiatives.